Public Opinion Insights on International Affairs from 14 Countries

Transatlantic Trends 2022: In Times of Geopolitical Turmoil

Washington, DC, and Paris (September 29, 2022) — The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and the Bertelsmann Foundation today publish the 2022 edition of its Transatlantic Trends polling, which paints a picture of transatlantic consensus on core issues, including on the war in Ukraine, NATO, and US involvement in European security. Amid the war in Ukraine and an unstable Europe – a dramatic increase in energy prices and inflation, concerns about security architectures and democratic backsliding – this survey conducted in 14 countries provides an overview of major trends in transatlantic relations at a crucial time.

Data from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye, the United Kingdom, and the United States shows that both sides of the Atlantic predict the United States’ global influence to drop significantly in the next five years. While the European public perceives the EU as a serious global actor, it also has a clear preference for working through the EU to address strategic challenges – namely relations with Russia and China. Opinions toward China diverge among Europeans and across the Atlantic—but a striking and overwhelming majority are against sending arms or troops if China were to invade Taiwan.

A majority of respondents in all countries surveyed (64%) see the United States as the most influential actor today, followed by the EU (17%), China (13%), and Russia (6%). Meanwhile, 37% of respondents say the United States will still be the most influential five years from now, with Beijing catching up (25%), and the EU (15%) and Russia (10%) still behind. The EU’s influence receives the most positive assessment, with 65% of respondents describing it as positive. The United States comes second (57%), while a negative perception prevails regarding Russia (73%) and China (62%).

The European Union is seen as a key player in international affairs by the public: 78% of respondents perceive it as important for their country’s security – a share just as high as for NATO – and it is European respondents’ preferred framework to manage relations with Russia and China. Compared to data from 2020 and 2021, the EU has passed China as the second-most influential power on the list.

There is no reflex for transatlantic cooperation when it comes to managing relations with Russia (30% prefer working through the EU and 27% through NATO, 19% prefer an independent approach, and 9% prefer cooperation with the United States) and China (38% EU, 22% independent approach, 13% cooperation with Asian countries, 11% cooperation with the United States). A narrow majority of 51% of respondents think that US-Europe relations will remain the same over the next five years, while 28% think they will be closer. The perception of US reliability has only slightly changed from 2021 (65%, +5 points), and 59% of European respondents (compared to 47% of American ones) approve the United States’ handling of international affairs.

Against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, 78% of respondents see NATO as important for the security and defense of their country, and 72% support US involvement in European security. The most important security challenges for the public are climate change (18%) and Russia (17%). On Ukraine, public opinion on both sides of the Atlantic supports prosecuting Russia for war crimes (74%), stronger economic sanctions (even it this comes at a cost, 71%), and increasing economic assistance to Ukraine (69%).

In addition to the war in Ukraine, tensions between China and Taiwan are increasingly in focus, particularly after US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei and US President Joe Biden’s most recent comments on whether the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China. In case of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, respondents clearly prefer exclusively diplomatic measures (35%) or sanctions (32%). There is very little appetite for sending arms (4%) or troops (2%) to Taiwan.

Compared to 2021, respondents see their democracies in decline. Significant shares of respondents describe their democracy to be in danger in the United States (30%, +10 points from 2021), Italy, Poland (both 32%), and Türkiye (46%).

The 2022 edition of Transatlantic Trends expanded beyond the 2021 survey, which polled public opinion in 11 countries. The most recent survey encompassed 14 countries, adding Lithuania, Portugal, and Romania.

For more information on the data and/or to speak with the project leads in Europe and the United States, please reach out to the media relations contacts below.

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Methodology:

The survey was conducted online between May 26 and July 11, 2022, in the following countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, Türkiye (500 online and 1,000 face-to-face interviews), the United Kingdom, and the United States. In each country, a representative national sample of 1,500 people was interviewed (representativeness ensured by the quota method applied to the respondent’s gender, age, region and socio-professional category or income level).

About the German Marshall Fund:

The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) is a non-partisan policy organization committed to the idea that the United States and Europe are stronger together. GMF champions the principles of democracy, human rights, and international cooperation, which have served as the bedrock of peace and prosperity since the end of World War II, but are under increasing strain. GMF works on issues critical to transatlantic interests in the 21st century, including the future of democracy, security and geopolitics, alliances and the rise of China, and technology and innovation. By drawing on and fostering a community of people with diverse life experiences and political perspectives, GMF pursues its mission by driving the policy debate through cutting-edge analysis and convening, fortifying civil society, and cultivating the next generation of leaders on both sides of the Atlantic. Learn more about GMF’s work at www.gmfus.org.

About the Bertelsmann Foundation:

The Bertelsmann Foundation, established in 2008 as the US arm of the Germany-based Bertelsmann Stiftung, was created to promote and strengthen the transatlantic relationship. Through research, analysis, forums, and audiovisual and multimedia content, we seek to educate and engage our audience on the most pressing economic, political, and social challenges facing the United States and Europe. Learn more about the Bertelsmann Foundation at www.bfna.org.

Media Relations Contacts:

The German Marshall Fund:

The Bertelsmann Foundation: