Five Public Opinion Insights from Italy before the Elections

Italians See their Democracy in Decline

Italians are pessimistic about the state of democracy in their country. Almost two-thirds of respondents say that it is in a bad state and almost one-third that it is in danger. In last year’s survey, Italy was among the countries with the highest share of respondents expressing extreme concern about their democracy—that share has grown from 27% to 32%.

The most negative views on Italian democracy are found in the populist or far-right electorate. Around three-quarters of supporters of the Five Star Movement (72%) and of Fratelli d’Italia (78%) think that democracy is in a bad state. The share of Fratelli d’Italia supporters saying democracy is in danger is 50%.

How this pessimism might translate into choices at the ballot box remains to be seen—for example, whether it leads to abstention by the undecided or to greater mobilization in favor of Fratelli d’Italia, which the polls predict will come first and thus will lead a new government. 

Italians Are Ambivalent of the United States’ Global Role

A majority of Italian respondents (56%) say that the United States is the most influential country in global affairs—a 7-point increase from last year. However, they are divided as to the nature of that influence, with 45% describing it as positive and 39% as negative.

Majorities of supporters of the three leading parties in the polls—Fratelli d’Italia (62%), Democratic Party (63%), and Five Star Movement (55%)—see US influence as positive.

However, of the EU countries surveyed, Italy has the highest share of negative views of US influence. Italians also anticipate that Washington’s influence will decline over the next five years. A plurality of respondents (44%) say China will be the most influential country in 2027 whereas only 25% say this of the United States.

At the same time, 51% of respondents disapprove of how US President Joe Biden is handling international affairs. Furthermore, the appetite for cooperation with the United States on relations with China and Russia is very low. When it comes to Russia and China, only 4% and 5% of Italian respondents respectively want this, and this position is shared across all categories of respondents.

As the third-largest economy in the EU, a G7 member, and an important security player in the Mediterranean, Italy is a crucial partner for the United States in Europe. The Transatlantic Trends results suggest that its backing for US policies should not be taken for granted, and that Washington should consider a charm offensive to generate broader support for cooperation.

The EU Matters to Italians across the Party Spectrum

Nearly three-quarters of respondents in Italy consider the EU important for their country’s national security—a slightly higher share than those who cite NATO in this regard. Nearly all (96%) of Democratic Party supporters, 83% of Five Star Movement supporters, and 65% of Fratelli d’Italia supporters express this opinion. The role of the EU particularly resonates with the young, with 45% of those aged 18–24 considering it as very important for Italy’s national security, compared to the national average of 35%.

Italian respondents show a clear “European reflex” when it comes to relations with China and Russia: 47% say Italy should manage the relationship with China through the EU, as opposed to in cooperation with the United States or independently, and 44% say this in the case of Russia.

A considerable share of supporters of Fratelli d’Italia favor an independent approach but the EU one is also popular among them. Regarding Russia, they are evenly divided (37% for each option) but when it comes to China they prefer the EU over independence (43% vs. 31%).

While an electoral victory for Fratelli d’Italia is likely to cause concern in Brussels and in EU capitals, its supporters being broadly in line with the country’s “European reflex” is an encouraging finding of the survey.

Italians Do Not Support Military Options in Ukraine

Italians are divided on how Italy should react to Russia’s war on Ukraine. There is clear opposition to military actions, with 57% of respondents opposing NATO troops being sent to Ukraine and 48% against increasing military supplies and equipment to the country. They are equally split with regard to increasing the presence of Italy’s military forces in NATO countries near Ukraine (45% for vs. 42% against).

Support for these military options is highest among younger respondents. Significantly more of those aged 18–24 agree with the idea of deploying Italian forces to NATO countries (55%) or Ukraine (43%).

The measures with highest support are prosecuting Russia for war crimes (66%), taking in a large number of Ukrainian refugees (61%), and imposing stronger economic sanctions on Russia (61%). Among Democratic Party supporters, backing for all the different measures is higher than the national average.

Fratelli d’Italia’s leader, Giorgia Meloni, has largely backed the Western line against Russia and sending more weapons to Ukraine. If she becomes prime minister, she will have to strike a balance between this rhetoric and public opinion.

Italians See China as Powerful But Are Split on How to Deal with It

The share of Italian respondents saying China’s influence in international affairs is positive has dropped to 29% from 36% in 2021, but the share of those describing it as negative remains constant from 2021 at 51%. One out of five respondents do not express an opinion either way. While 25% say China is the most influential actor in global affairs today, as noted above 44% say it will be in five years, compared to 25% opting for the United States. This expectation is shared by respondents across all categories.

Respondents’ preferred approach for Italy to deal with China varies significantly across policy areas. A majority want a tougher approach on human rights (53%) as do clear pluralities when it comes to climate change (44%) and managing pandemics (40%). The public is more evenly divided over cooperation and toughness with China when it comes to managing international crises (31% vs. 37%) and trade (33% vs. 35%).

When it comes to new technologies, the desire for cooperating with China largely prevails over that for a tougher approach (42% vs. 27%). Supporters of Forza Italia (53% vs. 36% for Lega and 40% for Fratelli d’Italia) and men (47% vs. 38% of women) are more in favor of cooperation. Regarding energy supply, 35% of respondents prefer cooperation with China while 33% want a tougher approach.

While Italy’s participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative had been strongly criticized by many of its Western partners, the government has grown more hawkish vis-à-vis Beijing over the last months, including against technology transfer and with more rigorous investment screening. The United States and the EU will be watching closely to see if this continues under a government led by Fratelli d’Italia. Meloni has recently said she favors pushing back against China’s influence in Europe.

Any change in Italy’s position may impact how far the United States is able to leverage formats like the G7 to compete with China or how the EU establishes a common approach to China, particularly as Brussels is updating its maritime security strategy. The above findings of the Transatlantic Trends survey indicate public opinion could curtail a new government’s margin for maneuver on these issues.