An Electoral Litmus Test for the Survival of Czechia’s Government

During the first and second weekend of October 2020, elections were held to Czechia’s regional councils and to one-third of the 81 seats in the upper chamber of parliament, the senate. One year ahead of the next general elections, the results reveal the weakness of the minority government of the ANO party of Prime Minister Andrej Babiš and of the Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) who, together with the Communist Party which formally backs the government at the national level, struggled to gain a majority in the regions and experienced some significant losses, especially in the senate.

Czechia’s governing parties were hit hard by the unsuccessful efforts to prepare the country for the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, which led to the firing of Minister of Health Adam Vojtěch (ANO) just a few days ahead of the vote. Despite replacing him with an experienced figure close to the prime minister, it was too late to take any emergency measures or reverse public opinion. Many of the ruling parties’ core—usually older—voters did not turn out to vote.

The elections further illustrated the extent of the crisis for the Czech left after many years in power, which is particularly the case for the previously dominant ČSSD. The left has been decimated by losing its authenticity and by falling prey to the aggressive campaigning and public relations of ANO, which has positioned itself as the defender of the interests of common people, pensioners, and lower-income earners. In addition, the ČSSD struggled—with some notable exceptions—to recruit strong personalities and successful regional leaders, who instead preferred to distance themselves from the party’s brand. This was also often the case for candidates for the senate, some of whom chose to campaign separately from the party structures to avoid public criticism but who lost anyway. ANO also lost all but one of the senate seats it contested.

The biggest loser in this election was the Communist Party, however, which has never really reformed or detached itself from its pre-1989 past and was only able to capture the protest vote. It is now known for its moderate rhetoric, support for the ANO, and the rapidly increasing age of its electorate, which is slowly but surely dying out. Its supporters are either turning to ANO or to the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy party (SPD) of Tomio Okamura, which had some important successes in these elections. The Communists lost their positions in nine out of 13 regions and failed to defend more than 70 seats in the regions. These elections are likely to result in the end of the party leadership, which has since 2005 been headed by Vojtěch Filip from the old pragmatic cadre.

Future Prospects?

Even if some of the executive posts in the Czech regions are still being negotiated, ANO and its allies have already lost in the most significant ones. Among them, the Central Bohemian and Hradec Kralove regions saw an important gain for the opposition parties and a reverse of the previous political trend. ANO lost control of some regions where it came first because the opposition managed to assemble alternative coalitions that excluded the government parties. This was the case in the key Southern Moravia, Southern Bohemia, and Pardubice regions among others.

One of the most important results of these elections has been a boost in coalition-making as a means of competing against the governmental bloc and the ANO behemoth. These new coalitions managed to unite the otherwise fragmented opposition vote, particularly in the center and the center-right part of the political spectrum. This showed that even in difficult regions good results can be achieved via cooperation and political compromises. For the 2021 parliamentary elections, two types of coalitions will matter in particular: one on the conservative side and the other closer to liberal values and centrist politics, with several national parties united behind them. Both will have a high chance of challenging ANO.

The conservative bloc is led by the Civic Democrats (ODS), which has managed to make a political comeback after its political fiasco in 2013. The second coalition will be led by the Pirates party, which is riding the zeitgeist of popularity in Czech politics now, even though it only entered national politics relatively recently. Despite its centrist and strongly liberal political leaning, the party has managed to establish itself on the political map even in the socioeconomically vulnerable regions in the Czech borderlands. This together with its popularity among younger and urban voters has led to good results in most of the Czech regions. On the other hand, the Pirates party achieved only limited results in the Senate campaign, which illustrates the relative tightness of the races in single-seat elections. The liberal bloc is likely to be supported by the Party of Mayors (STAN) that became the largest party in the upper chamber, taking over that position of the ODS.

Next year’s parliamentary election will be a fundamental test of the value-orientation of Czechia as well as the maturity of the democratic commitment of its citizens more than 30 years after the Velvet Revolution of 1989. But it will require responsibility, leadership, and the ability to make sometimes painful political compromises on the part of the democratic opposition parties to enable them to challenge ANO’s dominance. This will likely be the greatest test for the democratic development of Czechia over the last 30 years.