The U.S. Foreign Policy Monitor - What Allies and Partners Need to Know - December 18

GMF Editorial Staff
Welcome to the U.S. Foreign Policy Monitor where every week we track the “who,” “what,” and “so what” for the new U.S. administration and Congress. This week the Monitor is taking a closer look at what a U.S.

Welcome to the U.S. Foreign Policy Monitor where every week we track the “who,” “what,” and “so what” for the new U.S. administration and Congress. This week the Monitor is taking a closer look at what a U.S. China policy might look like under the incoming administration. Also, the electoral college and economic stimulus were front and center this week.  Sign up here to receive every Friday in your inbox.

*The Monitor will be off for the next couple weeks. Happy holidays and look for us again on Jan. 8.*

The Topline

This week’s electoral college vote affirmed Joe Biden’s victory as the 46th president of the United States. President Trump still refuses to concede, but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) congratulated the president-elect on Tuesday. Other Republicans in the Senate including Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Rob Portman (R-OH), Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Chuck Grassley (R-IA), followed suit in acknowledging Biden’s victory, with Senate Majority Whip John Thune (R-SD) suggesting “It’s time for everybody to move on.” In addition, Senators Ben Sasse (R-NE), John Cornyn (R-TX), and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) openly critiqued last week’s legal efforts to overturn the election, which were rejected by the U.S. Supreme Court.

U.S. legislators are closing in on a new economic stimulus. Regardless of the outcome, economic relief will remain a main concern for the incoming administration. At the beginning of December, President-elect Biden called for “a robust package for relief” to address the urgent needs created by the pandemic, but suggested that a larger package would likely be needed after inauguration. Given dynamics in the Senate, his ambitions to pass a more significant legislation could face challenges.

 

So What - In Focus This Week

Following the Obama administration’s “rebalance to Asia” and the Trump administration’s focus on “great power competition,” China remains front and center on President-elect Biden’s foreign policy agenda. But what will be different about the incoming administration’s approach? In his two-page briefer “What to Expect from an Ally-centered China Policy” GMF Senior Fellow Andrew Small explains that Biden will be inclined to a coordinated, multilateral strategy. Small suggests that the administration’s framing will be more focused on competition rather than Trump’s style of confrontation that often “failed to mobilize allies and partners behind a common stance.”

Read the full article here.

 

Who to Watch

In early December, President-elect Joe Biden tapped former Obama aide and BlackRock Head of Sustainable Investment Brian Deese to serve as director of the National Economic Council. While the pick confirms the incoming administration’s plan to address climate change on all levels of policymaking, some progressive groups have criticized the decision, pointing to BlackRock’s financial stakes in various energy companies.

Last week, Biden announced that he would nominate House Ways and Means Committee trade lawyer Katherine Tai as U.S. trade representative. Tai is positioned to help the administration navigate what is expected to be a tough U.S-China trade agenda. Before joining the Ways and Means Committee in 2014, Tai—who speaks fluent Mandarin—was the head of China enforcement at USTR, where she litigated U.S. disputes against China at the World Trade Organization (WTO). She also played a key role in negotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, ensuring strong labor provisions.

  • At her nomination announcement, Tai reflected on her personal story as a daughter of Taiwanese immigrants and her commitment to responsible and purposeful policymaking, arguing that “trade is not an end in itself… it is a means to create more hope and opportunity for people.”
  • For more on what to expect from Tai, read Shawn Donnan’s Bloomberg article, which finds Tai to be a “radical pick,” but the good kind of radical, representing “a generational leap.”
  • To see Tai in action, watch this discussion from August featuring her as a speaker, organized by the Center for American Progress.

 

What to Read 

PEOPLE AND THE TRANSITION:

What the Biden team can learn from the Buttigieg pick, Jennifer Rubin, The Washington Post.

“While other Biden nominees have raised some hackles from either Republicans or another group of Democrats (or both, in the case of retired Gen. Lloyd Austin, named to head the Pentagon), Buttigieg’s selection was received with widespread praise and something we have not seen before: genuine glee.”

Blinken Is Good Enough, Aaron David Miller and Richard Sokolsky, Foreign Policy.

“Blinken will need to tend a lot of gardens simultaneously to achieve job number one: keeping the United States out of trouble abroad so that the new president can focus all his time, energy, and political capital on fixing America’s problems at home. For this overriding mission, the new secretary of state does not need to be a brilliant strategist or conceptualizer—or have the stature, gravitas, or charisma of a Kissinger or a Baker.”

Biden’s Cabinet Could Be The First To Include At Least As Many Women As Men, Meredith Conroy, Anna Wiederkehr and Nathaniel Rakich, FiveThirtyEight.

“According to our research, if they’re all confirmed, it would break the record for the most women ever to serve in the 25 current Cabinet-level positions.”

Inside Biden’s Struggle to Manage Factions in the Democratic Party, Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin, The New York Times.

"President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. is confronting factionalism and fierce impatience within his own party, as the groups that make up the Democratic coalition see President Trump crumbling as an adversary and turn toward the battle to define the personnel and policies of a new administration."

How Biden’s team botched his Cabinet debuts, Natasha Korecki and Megan Cassella, Politico.

"Biden allies said he is putting together a Cabinet reminiscent of his campaign, a balancing act that aims to keep the peace and attempts to avoid antagonizing both the left and the right….But the series of personnel announcements have also hit turbulence. Some were rushed, some were delayed and some came as a surprise to those who expected to be consulted, critics say."

ON POLICY:

A Democracy Summit Is Not What the Doctor Ordered, By James Goldgeier and Bruce W. Jentleson, Foreign Affairs.

“A new administration may find that the summit overloads its circuits at a demanding time, forcing the United States to wrestle with the complexities of determining an invitation list and bringing Washington face-to-face with resistance to the assumption that it is entitled to sit at the head of the table at global gatherings.”

How Biden Can Move His Economic Agenda Without Congress, Noam Scheiber, The New York Times.

“President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s ability to reshape the economy through legislation hinges in large part on the outcome of the two Georgia runoffs in January that will decide control of the Senate. But even without a cooperative Congress, his administration will be able to act on its agenda of raising workers’ standard of living and creating good jobs by taking a series of unilateral actions under existing law.”

Biden faces a massive boom ahead — or maybe another recession first, Ben White, Politico.

“Stumbles on the vaccine or stimulus fronts could knock the economy and markets back into turmoil, making the incoming president’s first year a nightmare. But if the perfect scenario plays out — consistent aid to struggling Americans and businesses, and successful vaccine distribution and adoption — Biden could preside over a remarkable boom in an economy with enormous pent-up demand from Americans desperate to return to their normal lives.”

It Is Time to Let Turkey Go, Nick Danforth, Foreign Policy.

“It will be nearly impossible to cooperate with Turkey when the Turkish government sees the United States as a threat, and it will be difficult to support Turkish democracy when much of Turkey’s opposition does too.”

Iran Is in Syria to Stay, Elizabeth Dent and Ariane M. Tabatabai, Foreign Affairs.

“The incoming Biden administration will need to accept that its options for countering Iranian influence in Syria are limited, but it can still take some immediate steps.”

Sweeping Hack Gives Biden a Mandate to Reorient America’s Cyber Strategy, Bonnie Kristian, Defense One.

“Given its timing, the bulk of the response to [the major breach into federal agencies acknowledged Sunday] will fall to the incoming Biden administration rather than the outgoing Trump team. That may be fortuitous, as the Trump administration’s approach to cybersecurity has at once been too casual and too aggressive.”

 

What’s Happening @GMF