The U.S. Foreign Policy Monitor - What Allies and Partners Need to Know - January 15

GMF Editorial Staff
Welcome to the U.S. Foreign Policy Monitor where every week we track the “who,” “what,” and “so what” for the new U.S. administration and Congress.

Welcome to the U.S. Foreign Policy Monitor where every week we track the “who,” “what,” and “so what” for the new U.S. administration and Congress. Less than a week from the inauguration, new important nominations and appointments have been rolling in.

The Topline

Next Wednesday, President-elect Biden will be inaugurated as the 46th President of the United States. While Washington still grapples with last week’s violence and impeachment proceedings against President Trump unfold, preparations for the transition-of-power are moving full steam ahead.

With each day, we are getting greater clarity on what Biden’s foreign policy team will look like. In just the last week, we’ve learned that Amanda Sloat will run the Europe portfolio on the National Security Council (NSC) and Andrea Kendall-Taylor will serve as senior director for Russia and Eurasia. These two positions will be important in setting the president’s transatlantic agenda. Ambassador Samantha Power has also been tapped to run the U.S. Agency for International Development, and Ambassador William Burns has been nominated as director of the CIA. For more on Burns and Sloat, turn to our “Who to Watch” section below, where we also cover Victoria Nuland.

According to reports, Kurt Campbell will take up a new position on the NSC as “Indo-Pacific” coordinator. This move underscores the outsized role that China is expected to play in U.S foreign policy, and signals that the new administration will keep a tough stance on China given Campbell’s track record.

For a complete picture of the various nominations and respective confirmation steps, NPR provides a helpful summary here. There are better prospects for successfully confirming Biden’s various nominees following last week’s Democratic victory in the Georgia elections. The Senate is now split 50-50, with the tie breaking vote falling to the incoming vice president, Kamala Harris.

 

Who to Watch

Amanda Sloat will serve as the National Security Council’s senior director for European affairs. Sloat currently works at both the Brookings Institution as a Robert Bosch senior fellow and the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center as a fellow with the Project on Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship. Sloat previously served in the Obama administration as the deputy assistant secretary of state for Southern Europe and Eastern Mediterranean affairs. Prior to that, she served as a senior advisor to the White House coordinator for the Middle East and as a senior advisor to the assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs. She began her career in government as part of the professional staff for the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee. Sloat worked on the other side of the Atlantic as well—receiving her doctoral degree from the University of Edinburgh, working as a post-doctoral research fellow at Queen’s University Belfast, and serving as a special advisor to the Scottish Parliament, Northern Ireland Assembly, and European Commission. 

  • As senior director for Europe, Sloat will contend with the deterioration in relations between Turkey and the West. She discusses this issue in a 2018 article in Foreign Affairs.
  • Find a full copy of Sloat’s CV here.
  • For a glimpse beyond Sloat’s foreign policy perspectives, check out her advice to students graduating into a pandemic.

President-elect Biden recently nominated William J. Burns to serve as director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Burns is currently the president of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think tank. He joined Carnegie following three decades of service as a diplomat with the Department of State. Highlights of his tenure in government include postings as the U.S. Ambassador to Jordan and Russia, assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, under secretary for political affairs, and deputy secretary of state. In the lead-up to the Iraq War, Burns and some colleagues wrote a memo to Secretary of State Colin Powell, entitled “The Perfect Storm,” which detailed the potential folly of invading the country. This track record of speaking truth to power will serve Burns well as he seeks to rebuild trust both in and within the CIA. Hailing from a family steeped in public service—his father served as director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency—Burns received his doctorate from Oxford and speaks Russian, Arabic, and French. 

  • The Back Channel chronicles Burn’s long career in government. You can a purchase a copy of his memoir here. 
  • Worth watching: Burns’ 2011 confirmation hearing to serve as deputy secretary of state.
  • As a prolific writer and analyst, Burns has written some excellent pieces on a range of issues relating to U.S. foreign policy. Build your weekend reading list here.

Victoria Nuland is the presumptive nominee to serve as under secretary for political affairs at the Department of State. A career diplomat, Nuland currently works as a senior counselor at Albright Stonebridge Group, a strategic consulting firm based in Washington, DC. Nuland also worked as a foreign service officer for several decades. During this period, Nuland served in a number of prominent positions, including as deputy national security advisor to Vice President Dick Cheney, U.S. permanent representative to NATO, spokesperson for the Department of State, and assistant secretary of state for European and Eurasian affairs. Europeans will remember her outspoken engagement during the Ukraine crisis. Fluent in French and Russian, Nuland first tried her hand at global affairs by spending six months working on a Soviet fishing trawler.

  • Nuland recently participated in a panel hosted by the Brookings Institution on the implication of the elections for U.S. foreign policy. 
  • As under secretary for political affairs, Nuland will manage regional and policy issues across the world. This panel discussion from June 2020 provides insight into her thoughts on transatlantic relations (Note: panel starts at 1:50:00).
  • To get a better idea of how Nuland will deal with Russia and Vladimir Putin, check out this article she penned for Foreign Affairs and this interview with PBS.

 

What to Read 

PEOPLE AND THE TRANSITION

House Democrats look to fast-track Austin vote in wake of U.S. Capitol assault, Lara Seligman and Connor O’Brien, Politico.

“Austin's confirmation to lead the Pentagon has taken on new urgency in the wake of the attacks on the U.S. Capitol last week. While Austin won't be confirmed before Inauguration Day due to the congressional calendar, House Democrats are pushing to make him eligible for confirmation by the Senate quickly after.”

William Burns, a career diplomat, is Biden’s choice to head the C.I.A., Julian E. Barnes and Pranshu Verma, The New York Times.

“Mr. Biden’s choice sends a message that American intelligence will not be influenced by politics. In a statement early Monday, the president-elect said that Mr. Burns ‘shares my profound belief that intelligence must be apolitical and that the dedicated intelligence professionals serving our nation deserve our gratitude and respect.’”

Biden picks Samantha Power to lead USAID, Quint Forgey, Politico.

“President-elect Joe Biden on Wednesday announced his intent to nominate former Ambassador Samantha Power as administrator…Biden also announced that he would elevate the USAID administrator to have a seat at his White House’s National Security Council, which will be led by national security adviser Jake Sullivan.”

Biden’s NSC to focus on global health, climate, cyber and human rights, as well as China and Russia, Karen DeYoung, The Washington Post.

"The incoming Biden administration plans to restructure and expand the operations of the White House National Security Council, establishing new senior positions on global health, democracy and human rights, and cyber and emerging technology, signaling a sweeping shift in priorities, according to a senior adviser to the Biden transition.”

On civil rights, policing, prosecutions, Biden’s Justice Department will be distinct from Trump’s, Matt Zapotosky, The Washington Post.

"The Justice Department in the Biden administration is likely to increase resources for the civil rights division and resume wide-ranging scrutiny of troubled police departments nationwide.”

ON POLICY:

The U.S. Must Now Repair Democracy at Home and Abroad, Thomas Wright, The Atlantic.

“Repairing democracy at home is not incompatible with standing up for democracy abroad; they are mutually reinforcing. … Trumpism is part of a global nationalist-populist movement that benefits from international networks of kleptocracy, disinformation, and corruption.”

The United States Needs a Democracy Summit at Home, James Goldgeier and Bruce W. Jentleson, Foreign Affairs.

“Joe Biden will be inaugurated as president at noon on January 20, with the expressed hope of declaring that ‘America is back.’ But the new president will face a world that has tremendous reservations about whether the country that has held the mantle of world leadership since World War II should continue to do so.”

Biden Should Extend New START — and By the Full Five Years, Shannon Bugos, Defense One.

“President-elect Joe Biden has repeatedly expressed his intention to pursue an extension of the treaty, which can be extended for up to five years. Russia has communicated since the election that its offer, first made in December 2019, of a full five-year extension without any conditions is still on the table. Biden should take that deal.”

Kim Jong-un’s Shot Across Biden’s Bow, Bruce Klinger, Defense One.

“Pyongyang declared it wouldn’t change its policy regardless of who is in the White House. Kim conditioned resuming denuclearization negotiations on the U.S. abandoning its ‘hostile policy.’ Doing so would require the United States to capitulate to an extensive list of military, diplomatic, economic, and law enforcement demands.”

How Biden Can Help Prevent War on Iran—Right Now, Jonathan Tepperman, Foreign Policy.

“Does this mean that Biden’s only options are to either violate the rules or sit on his hands and run the risk that Trump will drag the country into a bloody quagmire…? Not quite; Biden and his aides can, and should, do two things immediately to help stave off a conflict.”

First, the Good News on Biden’s Stimulus, Justin Lahart, The Wall Street Journal.

“After last week’s special Senate elections in Georgia, Democrats are about to attain unified—though narrow—control of Washington. With that, the economy will likely be at the receiving end of significantly more federal support than most on Wall Street had expected. It is a shift that could change the contours of the U.S. economy in the year ahead, accelerating the rebound that will likely come as more Americans are vaccinated against Covid-19 and allowing the Federal Reserve to begin lifting its foot off the accelerator sooner.”

 

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