If Not Now, Then When?
July 2008
As ministers gather around the WTO negotiating table the week of July 21 in Geneva, there are troubling questions about whether the deal that is at hand is really worth doing and whether it is even possible to conclude an agreement at present, given the political constraints-especially those associated with a U.S. presidential election year.

Democracy and a Piece of Clothing
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff
July 18, 2008
France has rejected a citizenship application from a burqa-wearing Moroccan woman on the grounds that she has "insufficiently assimilated" to French culture. Should cultural assimilation be a requirement for citizenship?

A War The West Must Stop
Ronald D. Asmus
7/15/2008
There is war in the air between Georgia and Russia. Such a war could destabilize a region critical for Western energy supplies and ruin relations between Russia and the West. A conflict over Georgia could become an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. How they respond could become a test of the potential commander-in-chief qualities of Barack Obama and John McCain.

The U.S. Presidential Election and the Prospects for Transatlantic Trade and Investment
Joseph Quinlan
July 2008
The transatlantic partnership over the past eight years has been under constant strain, creating an atmosphere of disappointment and distrust on both sides of the Atlantic. This brief examines the transatlantic economic partnership on trade and investment and the prospects of whether or not that relationship will continue to flourish under a new U.S. administration in 2009 or whether there will be a new tide of protectionism.

Senior TAF Ian Lesser testifies before Congress on Europe-Israel relations
Ian Lesser
7/9/2008
Senior Transatlantic Fellow Ian Lesser testified today before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs in a joint hearing of the Subcommittee on Europe and the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. His testimony is posted in the attached document.

America must correct course: a conversation with Helmut Schmidt
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff
July 1, 2008
Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, the senior director for policy programs at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, recently met with former German Finance Minister and Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in his Hamburg office on behalf of The American Interest to discuss the United States and the world economy.

Walking a Tightrope: World Trade in Manufacturing and the Benefits of Binding
June 2008
Negotiators in Geneva are still struggling to conclude the Doha Round of multilateral trade talks at the World Trade Organization (WTO). Doubts have been fueled by the modesty of recent estimates of the gains on the table in the negotiations on Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA). This policy brief argues that a completed Doha Round has more to offer to the U.S. and European private sector than cuts to already low applied industrial tariffs. The real gold mine in the Doha negotiations is the increased certainty that would flow from large cuts to bound tariff rates.

Internationalizing the Georgia-Abkhazia Conflict Resolution Process: Why a Greater European Role is Needed
June 2008
The last several years have seen a deterioration in the situation, a growing tension level in the conflict zone and an increased danger of renewed conflict in Abkhazia. At stake is not only Abkhazia or Georgia, but the rules of the game in European security.

U.S. needs alliance with Europe
6/18/2008
As President Bush made his farewell tour of Europe, one could almost be forgiven for thinking the continent had become an afterthought for the United States. Yet such a view would ignore the fact that a strong trans-Atlantic alliance is needed now more than ever, as America shares many more values, challenges and goals with the democracies of Europe than with any other nations.

Narrowing the Transatlantic Climate Divide: A Roadmap to Progress
June 2008
Most climate change opinion leaders on both sides of the Atlantic have modest expectations for the July Summit in Hokkaido, Japan—the location of both the G-8 leaders’ meeting and the Major Economies Meeting (MEM), an initiative launched by President Bush last year that involves the world’s 16 major economic powers and emitters, plus the EU. Transatlantic allies seem to be an ocean apart over how quickly Europe, the United States, and other major economies should reduce emissions over the next decade, but downplaying Hokkaido could be a serious mistake.

Merkel in the Russia trap
Jörg Himmelreich
June 5, 2008
The cordial meeting between Merkel and the new Russian President Medvedev on his first trip to the West might indicate a change of style of Russia's foreign policy, but not its essence. The slalom course of Merkel and Steinmeier bears the risk for Germany to become isolated in Europe in its Russia and "Ostpolitik," Jörg Himmelreich warns. This article is written in German.

A Middle East Final Act?
June 2008
April 2009 will mark the 10th anniversary of the entry of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic into NATO. The journey of these and other former Warsaw Pact countries to the EU and NATO is one of the most inspiring transformations in modern history. Lessons from these remarkable achievements are relevant to the U.S. foreign policy debate in three critical areas.

GMF News: U.S. Presidential election website, journalism awards, new GMF Climate & Energy Program
June 4, 2008
The lastest GMF information on past events, publications, policy papers along with recent podcasts and blogs.

The Dalai Obama
Constanze Stelzenmüller
June 3, 2008
Barack Obama drums up admiration in Germany as only the Dalai Lama can do, but the end of this euphoria is foreseeable. As America chooses, the world looks on. The next man at the helm of America will determine global politics like none other. In this sense, won't he in fact become the world's President? He's pretty much there, at least that's so far the case in Germany.

Get involved over Georgia or invite a war
Ronald D. Asmus
June 3, 2008
The west could be sleepwalking into a war on the European continent. Georgia, which burst into view with a moving display of democratic ambition during the Rose Revolution of 2003, is teetering on the brink of war with Russia over the separatist Georgian enclave of Abkhazia. The outcome of this crisis will help determine the rules of the post-cold-war security system. But western diplomats are notsending strong enough signals to either side.
Written with Mark Leonard of the European Council on Foreign Relations

Turkey, closer to the U.S. than Europe
Michael Werz
June 2008
If you compare the geographical distances from Ankara, Los Angeles is 11,000 Kilometers removed, whereas Berlin is a mere one-fifth of that distance. This proximity Germany and Turkey should offer great opportunities to each other's societies. But if one compares the political debates vis-à-vis Turkey in Germany and the United States, the relationship of distance and proximity reverses itself. (Written in German)

A counterrevolutionary
Michael Werz
May 2008
As the Democratic nomination of a presidential candidate captivates the United States, the Republican race is already settled. But the headstrong outsider John McCain is still being identified with the unpopular President George Bush. And many of his political positions have not yet been clarified and he has a number of foes in his own party. Will he be able to unite the disparate parts of the party? This article is written in German.

Turkey's Travails: Outlook and Strategic Consequences
Ian Lesser
May 2008
As Turkey’s Constitutional Court prepares to act on the closure case pending against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turks across the ideological spectrum are watching and waiting. Predictions and preferences abound; active responses are limited. Caution and inertia appear to be the order of the day, even for those most exposed to the consequences of political and economic turmoil.

Transatlantic Regulatory Cooperation in Services: Can it Help the Developing World?
May 2008
The European Union and the United States have dynamic services markets highly integrated through deep trade and investment ties. Differences in regulatory approaches and philosophies occasionally cause transatlantic disagreement regarding how each should respond to specific challenges or market needs. This is particularly true in services, which tend to be more highly regulated than manufacturing industries.

Rediscovering the Mediterranean: A Transatlantic Perspective on Security and Strategy
Ian Lesser
May 2008
The American presence in the Mediterranean is longstanding, but despite 200 years of engagement in the region, the American perspective on the Mediterranean remains distinctive and diffused.

As Farm Bill Nears Vote, Bush Presses for Fewer Subsidies
Dan Morgan
May 4, 2008
President Bush's decision in 2002 to sign a farm bill loaded with billions of dollars of new agricultural subsidies triggered considerable criticism from GOP conservatives true to the party's anti-spending philosophy.

GMF News: Khalilzad, Transatlantic Forum on Migration and Integration, Kolbe Testifies
May 1, 2008
The lastest GMF information on past events, publications, policy papers along with recent podcasts and blogs.

Emptying the Breadbasket
Dan Morgan
April 29, 2008
At Stephen Fleishman's busy Bethesda shop, the era of the 95-cent bagel is coming to an end. Breaking the dollar barrier "scares me," said the Bronx-born owner of Bethesda Bagels. Fleishman and his customers are hardly alone. Across America, turmoil in the world wheat markets has sent prices of bread, pasta, noodles, pizza, pastry and bagels skittering upward, bringing protests from consumers.

China's African Aid
April 24, 2008
The rise of China as a very visible actor in Africa is one of the most striking features of the first decade of the new millennium. Trade between the two regions is projected to reach $100 billion before 2010, ten times the 2000 figure. At the same time, the rise of China has been greeted with fear and apprehension by many in the United States, Europe, and Africa who see this strong interest more as a threat than an opportunity.

Getting America’s Message Out to a Skeptical World
Michael Polt
April 2008
As the world continues to be intrigued by the U.S. electoral process, getting the American message out to its foreign audiences in a credible manner will be one of the most important agenda items and the toughest challenges for the new U.S. administration in January 2009. With a pioneering foreign and domestic policy and a strong diplomatic service, the United States is uniquely positioned to take on this public diplomacy challenge.

Jim Kolbe testifies before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs
Jim Kolbe
April 23, 2008
Senior Transatlantic Fellow Jim Kolbe, a former Member of the U.S. House of Representatives, testified April 23 before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs about foreign assistance reform in the next administration.

The End of the End of History
Robert Kagan
April 22, 2008
GMF Transatlantic Fellow Robert Kagan gives five reasons as to why the twenty-first century will look like the nineteenth.

Brown, black, white: Americans vote and discover a new continent
Michael Werz
April 11, 2008
Usually nominations and elections decide about the future of a society. However, much to the surprise of many American, in the United States an intensive conversation about the status quo has begun. This has to do with the monumental changes in race relations that have become highlighted in the Democratic nomination process; transformations that before might not been so visible. The yearlong battle has opened out into a cultural self-reflection of national proportions and resulted in an unbelievable political mobilization. (In German)

Rethinking NATO Partnerships for the 21st Century
Ronald D. Asmus
April 2008
Security threats today are globalised and non-traditional. It’s time for NATO’s partnerships to follow suit.

Bucharest Conference Papers
April 2008
Edited by Robin Shepherd of Chatham House and released in advance of the Bucharest Conference and ahead of the official NATO Summit, the Bucharest Conference Papers are written by independent authors on the topics of NATO's mission in Afghanistan; NATO enlargement; global cyber defense and NATO; and NATO's relationship with Russia.

Supping at the WTO's Last Chance Saloon
Joe Guinan
March 27, 2008
The global credit squeeze has made the world's economics ministers understandably jittery. But the crisis unfolding over world trade is far more serious. With the Doha Round of talks at the WTO at a standstill, now the unthinkable could happen. The global trading system may be abandoned.

Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin - Spring 2008
March 25, 2008
The Balkan Trust for Democracy periodically releases a seasonal Bulletin in which it shares grantee success stories, the latest BTD news, and letters from Executive Director Ivan Vejvoda.

Time to Rethink the WTO System:The United States, the European Union, and World Trade
Joe Guinan
March 2008
This paper argues that there is a need for reflection on the purpose of the WTO system. Putting the rapid integration of the world economy in perspective, this paper dwells on American and European leadership, or lack thereof, and on the major threats to the WTO system over agricultural protectionism and the proliferation of trade agreements. The authors conclude with alternative broad approaches to the further liberalization of trade.

The Crisis of the Post-Cold War European Order: What to Do About Russia’s Newfound Taste for Confrontation With the West
March 2008
The author of this paper argues that Russia’s newfound taste for confrontation with the West is not an emotional overreaction or theatrical grandstanding – it is a strategic choice. The Kremlin’s new foreign policy is not circumstantial in nature. It is the expression of a new foreign policy consensus within the Russian elite and the Russian society at large. The author analyzes what the West can do to allow the coexistence of a post-modern European Union and a post-imperial Russia.

Guardians of the Global System: What the Transatlantic Economic Partnership Should Give the World — and Why it Might Not Deliver
Richard Salt
March 2008
This paper is an effort to illustrate a number of factors shaping the global political economy, in the hope of generating a long-term foundation for transatlantic cooperation. The first part describes the scale of the challenge by reminding us why globalization generates particular challenges that require international solutions, and why it is so difficult to secure the necessary international cooperation. The second part argues that transatlantic cooperation is likely to be essential, and that the European Union and the United States have a particular responsibility conferred on them by their size and power; noting, however, that significant political obstacles seem, at present, likely to block progress.

Transatlantic Power Failures: America and Europe, Seven Years After 9/11: Hard Power Humbled, Soft Power Exposed, and a Looser, More Pragmatic Relationship
Constanze Stelzenmüller
March 2008
This briefing paper examines the massive failures of that occurred after 9/11 on both sides of the Atlantic. It analyzes the notion of power, and the ideas and policies that stemmed from the attack by asking the following questions: What failed, and why? What remains valid, and worth preserving? And what is the way forward for the transatlantic relationship?

Balancing National Security and Commerce
March 2008
Following several years of tension between Europe and the United States, policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic have rediscovered pragmatism. Apparently irreconcilable differences of values are giving way to new forms of practical cooperation. However, the new transatlantic relationship differs from the old one in some very important ways. New issues that involve access to various forms of security-sensitive economic information are becoming increasingly prominent. These issues, however, do not fit neatly into the traditional boxes of the transatlantic relationship. On the one hand, they touch directly on important and sensitive matters of national security. On the other hand, they involve a much wider variety of actors than traditional security issues ever did. The European Union and the United States have sought to resolve their differences over these issues in new ways, opting for decentralized and often ad-hoc forms of cooperation that build upon existing relationships in the security realm.

Will America's Image Recover in Europe: Understanding Public Opinion Since 9/11
John K. Glenn
March 2008
Managing expectations for change may be the foremost task for policymakers in the coming administration. European media coverage of the U.S. election has at times reflected a fascination with various candidates, leading one observer to declare, “Germany’s got a crush on Obama.” This paper grounds these hopes and fears by analyzing the public opinion data of Transatlantic Trends, an annual survey of foreign policy attitudes in the United States and Europe conducted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States and its partners since 2002.

Of Ayatollahs and Jacobins: Re-balancing after the Rise of Revolutionary Powers—a Historical Lesson for Transatlantic Policy Toward Iran
March 2008
In this paper that the Iranian revolution of 1979 can be compared to the French revolution of 1789 in its destabilizing effects—and in the need it created for a new balance of power. Each event set loose powerful shock waves that undermined the stability of neighboring states, and indeed, challenged their very legitimacy. Each inaugurated an era in which mobilization of the masses, through emotional, ideological, or religious appeals, had a transforming effect on their regions. Each introduced a revolutionary challenge to the prevailing balance in regional security. Each launched other revolutionary movements that, though they appeared to be competitors, were really aftershocks—the rise of Prussia was arguably such an event in Europe and the rise of Al-Qaeda was certainly such an event in the Islamic Middle East. And each prompted what might be called “wars of containment”—attempts by the neighboring status quo powers to contain the revolutions’ disruptive impact outside their home borders. These comparisons are obviously not precise—the growth of the Prussian state and the emergence of Al-Qaeda terrorism are radically different events. But each phenomenon was linked to the disruption of the status quo by a revolutionary power.

Kosovo: The Balkans' Moment of Truth
Ivan Vejvoda
March 4, 2008
Ivan Vejvoda, executive director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, testified before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding Kosovo and the Balkans.

The Copenhagen Consensus: Reading Adam Smith in Denmark
March 1, 2008
Denmark has forged a social and economic model that couples the best of the free market with the best of the welfare state, transcending tradeoffs between dynamism and security, efficiency and equality. Other countries may not be able to simply copy the Danish model of social democracy, but it nonetheless offers important lessons for governments confronting the dilemmas of globalization.

Senate Testimony: The Foreign Aid Lessons for Domestic Economic Assistance Act of 2007
February 27, 2008
Paul Applegarth, former GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow, testified before a Senate committee on how foreign economic aid and development lessons can impact domestic economic aid.

A new catastrophe for the boat people
February 21, 2008
Le Dung was 7 when his family bought passage on a rickety boat and fled the communist government of Vietnam for parts unknown. That was 30 years ago, when the plight of the Vietnamese boat people filled newspapers as one of the most dramatic stories coming out of the Cold War in Asia, and the United Nations convened a special conference to find them homes. Today these former boat people endure further misfortune after their homes were destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.

Atlantic Faces Interview
Jan Neutze
February 18, 2008

The Democrats in '08: Clinton and Obama struggle between experience and change
Michael Werz
February 2008
Since World War II, the quarrels within the democratic party during the primaries have attracted attention because the party was known for destroying itself while trying to find a suitable candidate for the most important position in the world. Why, in the seemingly endless campaigns from 2007 and 2008, does everything appear to be different this time around? GMF Transatlantic Fellow Michael Werz explains the reasons in this article for Kommune (full text in German).

2007 Annual Report
February 2008
Highlights GMF convening events, networking programs, research, and grantmaking initiatives in 2007. Also, includes a letter from GMF President Craig Kennedy along with financial and partner information. Downloadable as a large PDF file.

The Impacts of Biofuels on Greenhouse Gases: How Land Use Change Alters the Equation
Tim Searchinger
February 7, 2008
Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels.

GMF News: Bulgarian FM, climate change, regulation policy
January 31, 2008
The lastest GMF information on past events, publications, policy papers along with recent podcasts and blogs.

China's New Dictatorship Diplomacy
Andrew Small
January 28, 2008
China is often accused of supporting a string of despots, nuclear proliferators, and genocidal regimes, shielding them from international pressure and thus reversing progress on human rights and humanitarian principles. A new Chinese foreign policy practice is emerging. This article was co-written with Stefanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt.

German voters peek through the looking glass
Constanze Stelzenmüller
January 25, 2008
The incumbent campaigning for re-election in this weekend's German election is one of his party's heavyweights, an ambitious and confident bruiser with a talent for scorching populist rhetoric. His challenger is a woman, a diffident speaker in a party with few women in top leadership positions; her peers would mostly have preferred another man as their candidate. It seemed an easy win for the incumbent. Now, polls show the race is too close to call.

The Baltic Model
Ronald D. Asmus
January 16, 2008
The West again faces major questions about how to reach out to young democracies striving to join our institutions -- in the Balkans, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia. The challenge is to tie these countries to the West and its values at a time when enlargement fatigue is setting in and Moscow's opposition is growing.

Iran Policy After the “NIE” — Modest Findings, Revolutionary Effects
Ian Lesser
January 8, 2008
Findings from the recently released National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s program are not revolutionary — but the ensuing debate could be transforming for U.S. and transatlantic strategy toward Iran. The new estimate suggests that Tehran may well opt for a prolonged “near-nuclear” posture to secure greater regional weight and influence without triggering a sharp diplomatic or military response. The option of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure now looks more remote. But longer term transatlantic strategy will need to emphasize containment and extended deterrence — alongside possible strategic dialogue with Iran.

Europe's Philosophy of Failure
Stefan Theil
January 4, 2008
What a country teaches its young people reflects its bedrock national beliefs. Schools hand down a society's historical narrative to the next generation. There has been a great deal of debate over the ways in which this historical ideology is passed on - Japanese textbooks that downplay the Nanjing Massacre, Palestinian textbooks that feature maps without Israel, and new Russian guidelines that require teachers to portray Stalinism more favorably. Yet there has been almost no analysis of how countries teach economics, a subject equally crucial in shaping foreign and domestic policies.

ACPs and EPAs: where’s the beef?
Joe Guinan, Susan Sechler
January 3, 2008
Now that the Doha round appears to be stirring back to life, some of the world's poorest countries should be looking to multilateralism to protect their interests with a renewed sense of urgency. The perils of bilateralism and unequal negotiations have been brought into sharp focus by the year-end expiration of the WTO waiver for the Cotonou regime of trade preferences, by which the European Union offered special access to its markets for the African, Carribean, and Pacific (ACP) group of former European colonies.

Is our aid making us safer?
Jim Kolbe
January 2, 2008
While images of Africa are effective in raising awareness of the issue, little attention has been paid to the problems in our current efforts to alleviate poverty. It is increasingly apparent that our aid - and trade - policies are not really supporting economic growth in impoverished countries. Nor are they enhancing our own security.

Modernity, Resentment, and Anti-Americanism
Michael Werz
January 2008
Althought Anti-Americanism is often treated as though it were a uniform reaction toward some undefined but somehow concrete experience, it should be analysed instead against the background of dynamic societies undergoing profound social, economic, and political and cultural transformations. This essay highlights some of the attempts to generally understand this phenomenon and then moves onto Germany specifically.