Ukraine Aid and the Attack on Israel

Among the efforts to make geopolitical sense of Hamas’ butchery in Israel, three main interpretations have emerged. The first welcomes us to the jungle. As the American-led, rules-based global order is fraying, we find ourselves in a bloody transition phase, awaiting the new stability that is supposed to be found in a multipolar world. Currently, regional actors are brimming with ambition and are using force to achieve their goals simply because they can. A connection between these events is not evident.

The second interpretation, in contrast, sees a strong link between Putin’s and Hamas’ barbarianism. In this analysis, Hamas’ attack—which was a suicide attack in the sense that it must have foreseen Israel’s categorical response—is the opening of a second front in a global war on the West. Hamas is allied with Iran, and Iran is allied with Russia. And Putin is the master of ratcheting things up, drawing symmetric advantage from such asymmetric escalation. Evidence of coordination will surely emerge.

The third interpretation tries to stake out a middle course, seeing the connections between theaters as indirect. While evidence of coordination between the two attackers in Moscow and Gaza City, as well as their supporters in Teheran, may remain elusive, it is not even necessary. Their joint desire to destroy the old order by whatever means necessary is enough of a call to action for the West.

If world history is seen as entering a jungle phase, not much can be done about either Ukraine or Israel—at least not by outside actors. “Peak Ukraine” will have been reached, and aid will decline from here on out, no matter what the consequences. After all, the “multipolar world” is an anti-Western concept, and the term was invented by none other than Russia’s seemingly eternal foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov.

But if connections between the attacks on Ukraine and Israel become evident, a siege mentality could spread in the West, leading to strengthening resistance against a course of history that unfriendly actors see as inevitable.

In Europe, the EU train has left the station. In December, Ukraine will likely be allowed to start accession negotiations. This moment will come with a “Ukraine plan” of support, with a solid €50 billion for the next few years currently foreseen. The Brussels bureaucratic machine, much criticized though it is, appears to be delivering.

In the United States, the most important battle will be fought in Congress. The Biden Administration, reacting to the Hamas attack, proposes a major joint Ukraine and Israel support bill, thereby highlighting the perceived connections between the two theaters.

Which reading of events prevails will determine the course of action. Not for the first time, the decisive battle over the direction of Western policy will be fought in the United States.